Why US Trade with Mexico and China Could Not Be More Different
Adams Nager | Industry Week对全球贸易来说，这要么是最好的时代，要么是最坏的时代，这取决于你问谁. Protectionists villainize trade as damaging to U.S. workers, 而在硬币的另一边，纯粹的自由放任的自由贸易者认为贸易对美国来说是一个纯粹的积极因素.
Mexico and China frequently are labeled as scapegoats for U.S. manufacturing decline. Partially, 这是因为墨西哥和中国目前是我们最大的两个贸易伙伴, comprising 15% and 17% of U.S. global trade volume, respectively. In addition, both have lower labor costs than the United States, 因此，人们的看法是，他们拥有不公平的优势，导致离岸工作的“巨大吸吮声”.
However, losing a job to China is much more damaging for the United States than losing a job to Mexico for three main reasons: The United States and Mexico have conjoined and complementary supply chains in many industries; Mexico generally plays by the rules while China willfully ignores international trade agreements; and trade with Mexico does not aggressively grow the U.S. trade deficit. I’ll break each of these down.
1. Mexico’s manufacturing sector is integrated with U.S. supply chains and success is shared.
Supply chains frequently stretch across the U.S.-Mexican border. 通过这种方式，北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)发挥了应有的作用. The United States and Mexico form a high wage/low wage partnership, bringing complementary labor forces, investments, innovation capacity, and industry strengths together to be able to compete globally. With strategic relationships with Mexico, 美国可以保持高附加值产业的组成部分，使其符合我们高工资的比较优势, innovation-intensive country. For example, 40% of the inputs to finished manufacturing goods in Mexico from the United States.
By contrast, in China, that figure is a mere 4%. In essence, unlike trade with Mexico, when production goes to China, the United States loses out on much more of the production process. As Figure 1 demonstrates, when imports from Mexico go up, so do U.S. exports, too.
Figure 1: U.S. Trade with Mexico, International Trade Administration
This is why the Reshoring Initiative, 积极倡导公司将工作岗位带回美国的公司, tracks “nearshoring” as well as “reshoring” activity. 工作机会从亚洲或其他地方转移到墨西哥，为美国提供了巨大的价值, as inputs to the manufacturing process (as well as consulting services, R&D, 和其他支持近岸公司的高附加值工作)通常由美国公司生产.S. firms.
2. 墨西哥一般遵循有关公平国际贸易惯例的全球规则和指导方针, while China aggressively does not.
Free trade agreements provide a set of rules for countries to follow. However, not all countries follow the rules. 中国可能是世界上最严重的违规者，而总体而言，墨西哥是按规则行事的.
墨西哥和美国是典型的双边自由贸易关系. Conversely, the U.S. 与中国的关系是单边的——美国遵守自由贸易规则，但却遭受侵略, predatory digressions from fair trade practices from the Chinese. 而一些经济学家认为，单边贸易(公平贸易)对美国来说是不公平的, mercantilism for China) is still a positive for the United States, 很明显，与重商主义国家的单边贸易安排在短期和长期都会造成重大损害.
自2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来(当时是美国经济急剧下滑的十年之初).S. manufacturing employment, which several leading researchers show is more than coincidence), 为了获得不公平的优势，中国一次又一次地忽视了ATO的规则. 麻省理工学院(MIT)的戴维•奥托尔(David Autor)研究了中国进口商品对美国的影响，得出的结论是，它们导致了美国经济损失2%.4 million manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010, about 42% of the total jobs lost during that time.
这要归功于从货币操纵到公然窃取知识产权的各种政策, from localized barriers to trade to foreign equity restrictions, China ranks second to last ITIF的指数对56个国家在维护自由贸易和全球创新方面的政策和制度质量进行了排名. Mexico also scores below average on this measure, 但与同等发展水平的国家相比，它做得相当不错. And its transgressions are much less egregious. Indeed, Mexico is, in the ITIF categorization, an Innovation Follower, 这个国家虽然对全球创新体系贡献相对较少，但对全球创新体系却几乎没有损害.
Meanwhile, China is labeled an Innovation Mercantilist, 贡献不大，却严重影响了全球创新. 墨西哥将其制造业的成功与公平开放的国际贸易联系在一起. 事实上，墨西哥与外国签订的自由贸易协定比美国还多.
3. Trade with Mexico does not contribute to U.S. trade deficit.
While the United States runs trade deficits with both nations, its deficit with Mexico is a fraction of its deficit with China, and has not significantly changed despite U.S. trade with Mexico increasing substantially.
Figure 2: Trade Balance, International Trade Administration
2015年赤字的扩大很可能是由于美元升值的短期影响.S. dollar. However, 美国对墨西哥的赤字完全在预期范围之内, and until 2015, the United States ran an overall surplus with its NAFTA partners.
In contrast, 中国对美国的出口几乎相当于加拿大和墨西哥的总和, while it imports less than 50 percent of the U.S.-made goods that the United States’ NAFTA partners do.
图3:美国进出口比例，国际贸易管理局
Though the total volume of U.S./墨西哥的贸易大幅上升，贸易差额一直是负的，但很低. China has a very different impact, 运往美国的货物是他们收到的货物的五倍多.
In summary, 在有关制造业的辩论中，不应把墨西哥和中国放在一起, globalization, and protectionism. When a U.S. 要么去中国，要么因为与中国公司的竞争而倒闭, the United States gains little but loses much. However, 美国和墨西哥的贸易关系更加互利, 墨西哥失去的经济活动通常会在制造业的其他部分得到弥补. 当一份工作流向墨西哥时，这通常是市场力量的结果. Yet when a job leaves for China, often as not, it’s the result of carefully meditated moves by the Chinese government.
美国与这两个国家关系的差异表明，需要在贸易问题上进行更细致入微的讨论. 如果联邦政府把政治资本花在对抗墨西哥上, 对中国的创新重商主义发起有效挑战的能力将大大降低. In short, the Trump administration needs to choose its battles carefully. 与墨西哥的“小冲突”意味着没有足够的资源与中国进行“战争”.
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